US market · US

Published 2026-10-09 · Data as of 2026-10-08

Microsoft Scenario analysis

Public price acquisition · local analysis, selection and writing · no external inference service

01 Observed metrics 02 Scenario cards 03 Outcome evaluation

01 · Observed metrics and interpretation

Data as of2026-10-08

Last 5 trading sessions+1.91%

Last 20 trading sessions+6.13%

Annualized realized volatility21.50%

Microsoft: Both the 5-day and 20-day trends point upward. Monitor continuation alongside the possibility of a reversal of recent gains.

Changes after the data date are not included. A report published today does not turn older observations into current market prices.

02 · Scenario analysis and responses

Scenario

Action candidates are local model selections. Card frequencies summarize historical analogues; they are not current forecast probabilities. Scenario selection scores and day-over-day changes were not calculated in this run and are not displayed.

RT2 · analogue frequency rank 1

Rise then reversal

Historical analogues5/20 cases

Reference share25.0%

Observation threshold±1%

Conditional interpretation of observations · local template

Microsoft changed +1.91% over the last 5 days and +6.13% over 20 days. This path applies when an initial rise is followed by a decline from the first peak of at least the barrier width.

Assess the size of the pullback and the risk of existing exposure before chasing further gains.

Historical internal paths · reference counts

This path occurred in 5 of 20 matured historical analogues for the same asset. Observations may overlap; these are not independent validation samples or a current success probability.

RT6 · analogue frequency rank 1

Two-sided fluctuation

Historical analogues5/20 cases

Reference share25.0%

Observation threshold±1%

Conditional interpretation of observations · local template

Microsoft changed +1.91% over the last 5 days and +6.13% over 20 days. This path applies when both thresholds are reached with repeated crossings of the reference price.

Account for frequent reversals and transaction costs, and constrain risk rather than chase direction.

Historical internal paths · reference counts

This path occurred in 5 of 20 matured historical analogues for the same asset. Observations may overlap; these are not independent validation samples or a current success probability.

RT5 · analogue frequency rank 3

Sustained decline

Historical analogues4/20 cases

Reference share20.0%

Observation threshold±1%

Conditional interpretation of observations · local template

Microsoft changed +1.91% over the last 5 days and +6.13% over 20 days. This path applies when only the lower threshold is reached and the path ends at or below it.

Check conditions for reducing exposure or remaining in cash before relying on a rebound.

Historical internal paths · reference counts

This path occurred in 4 of 20 matured historical analogues for the same asset. Observations may overlap; these are not independent validation samples or a current success probability.

Fewer than 5 matching cases provide limited evidence for this path.

RT7 · analogue frequency rank 4

Other paths

Historical analogues3/20 cases

Reference share15.0%

Observation threshold±1%

Conditional interpretation of observations · local template

Microsoft changed +1.91% over the last 5 days and +6.13% over 20 days. This path applies when none of the preceding six path rules applies.

Wait for further observations without forcing a directional view; RT7 itself is not an instruction to abstain.

Historical internal paths · reference counts

This path occurred in 3 of 20 matured historical analogues for the same asset. Observations may overlap; these are not independent validation samples or a current success probability.

Fewer than 5 matching cases provide limited evidence for this path.

RT1 · analogue frequency rank 5

Rise and hold

Historical analogues1/20 cases

Reference share5.0%

Observation threshold±1%

Conditional interpretation of observations · local template

Microsoft changed +1.91% over the last 5 days and +6.13% over 20 days. This path applies when the upper threshold is reached first and held without a major reversal.

Monitor whether the rise persists; reconsider the hold scenario if the reversal grows after the upper threshold is reached.

Historical internal paths · reference counts

This path occurred in 1 of 20 matured historical analogues for the same asset. Observations may overlap; these are not independent validation samples or a current success probability.

Fewer than 5 matching cases provide limited evidence for this path.

RT3 · analogue frequency rank 5

Delayed rise

Historical analogues1/20 cases

Reference share5.0%

Observation threshold±1%

Conditional interpretation of observations · local template

Microsoft changed +1.91% over the last 5 days and +6.13% over 20 days. This path applies when the upper threshold is not reached in the first horizon but is reached in the next.

Do not immediately interpret an initial sideways move as failure; distinguish timing conditions through the end of the observation window.

Historical internal paths · reference counts

This path occurred in 1 of 20 matured historical analogues for the same asset. Observations may overlap; these are not independent validation samples or a current success probability.

Fewer than 5 matching cases provide limited evidence for this path.

RT4 · analogue frequency rank 5

Fall then recovery

Historical analogues1/20 cases

Reference share5.0%

Observation threshold±1%

Conditional interpretation of observations · local template

Microsoft changed +1.91% over the last 5 days and +6.13% over 20 days. This path applies when the lower threshold is crossed first, followed by the upper threshold.

Do not assume a decline is a buying opportunity; assess new exposure conservatively until recovery is confirmed.

Historical internal paths · reference counts

This path occurred in 1 of 20 matured historical analogues for the same asset. Observations may overlap; these are not independent validation samples or a current success probability.

Fewer than 5 matching cases provide limited evidence for this path.

03 · Outcome evaluation — did the scenario lead to returns?

The outlook is formed at each asset's last observation date. Subsequent realized prices are not available in the inputs, so forecast accuracy and returns cannot yet be evaluated. Results from other periods or assets are not substituted for this report's outcomes.

Horizon	Analysis as of	Path observation window	Path outcome	Return evaluation
5 trading days	2026-10-08	10 trading days	Subsequent observations required	Not calculated
20 trading days	2026-10-08	40 trading days	Subsequent observations required	Not calculated

Costs, trading rules and evaluation scope

This view does not include a trading simulation linked to executions or actual positions. Equity curves, win rates, trade counts and returns after transaction costs are therefore not fabricated. Earlier training and retrospective research results are separately identified in the appendix.

Previously validated scenarios · including B3

These are historical index-research references, not validated performance for this stock.

View periods, Top-2 and comparisons

Model	Horizon	Top-2	Reference	Period
S&P 500 · B3-1	h5	50.81%	B2 44.90%	2024-01-02 – 2026-09-14
S&P 500 · B3-1	h20	55.95%	B2 47.30%	2024-01-02 – 2026-07-31

Top-2 is not a profit probability. Details include five-report outcome checks, trading results and rejected B3-2/B3-3 combinations.

Full validation results and date-by-date judgments →

Key risks and checks

Short- and medium-term trends may diverge. Small analogue samples make historical path shares unstable. Volatility does not indicate future direction. News, disclosures and earnings events are absent from these inputs and cannot be asserted as causes of price movements.

Price changes after the data date are excluded. Provider-adjusted prices and corporate-action handling have not been independently audited. Historical stock analogues are not equivalent to validated index performance.

Company selection basis

Internal universe; approximate market cap from unadjusted close × available share count as of 2026-10-08; GOOGL represents GOOGL/GOOG; whole-market rank is not guaranteed; analysis uses provider-adjusted closes; ?? ??? ??? Close ?? ???? ?? ??? ????? ????.

Appendix · MiDM/B3 usage and internal/external processing

MiDM: Applied · B3: Not applied

Stage	Location	Usage
Market data acquisition	External → internal	Public prices are downloaded and stored locally. Requests contain public symbols and date ranges only.
Numerical and scenario analysis	Internal	Indicators and historical analogues are calculated from stored prices. B3: Not applied.
Decision and selection	Internal	MiDM selects buy, wait, hold or sell candidates.
Text, charts and languages	Internal	Calculated values and selections populate templates, charts and tables. No external writing or translation service.
Report publication	Internal → external	Reviewed reports, aggregates and documentation are published to GitHub and Hugging Face.
Country-based language	Visitor → external	Automatic URLs query Country.is using the visitor IP. No financial inputs or report body are sent. Direct language URLs skip this lookup.

Internal calculations, prompts and raw data are not sent to external inference services. Public report content is uploaded for publication. The performance below is historical KOSPI evaluation, not the success probability of this asset.

MiDM · historical accuracy 54.37% · balanced accuracy 49.24%