{
  "release_date": "2026-10-18",
  "manuscript": "Coincident, Not Leading",
  "scope": "Separate Phase34 tabular-model sensitivity study, not MiDM generic decision benchmarks or per-RT scenario hit rates",
  "status": "Computational audit complete; manuscript integration and paper-level certification pending",
  "publication_ready": false,
  "table8": {
    "cohort": "US57, original Phase34 excluded",
    "source_sha256": "cf032608c2005832352808e4602a8a0bc68cf494398f26a62708581e7247e3c3",
    "definition": "median across 57 model-specific dominance_margin values per signal version and target role; near-band max abs correlation minus outer-band max abs correlation",
    "cells": [
      {
        "signal_version": "raw_original",
        "target_role": "market_return",
        "models": 57,
        "median_dominance_margin": 0.0173863350418078
      },
      {
        "signal_version": "raw_original",
        "target_role": "down_magnitude",
        "models": 57,
        "median_dominance_margin": 0.0302960157549964
      },
      {
        "signal_version": "raw_original",
        "target_role": "up_magnitude",
        "models": 57,
        "median_dominance_margin": -0.0085057690830043
      },
      {
        "signal_version": "factor_residual",
        "target_role": "market_return",
        "models": 57,
        "median_dominance_margin": 0.0130772367057845
      },
      {
        "signal_version": "factor_residual",
        "target_role": "down_magnitude",
        "models": 57,
        "median_dominance_margin": 0.0279228953200101
      },
      {
        "signal_version": "factor_residual",
        "target_role": "up_magnitude",
        "models": 57,
        "median_dominance_margin": -0.0385328820728805
      }
    ],
    "rechecked_from_stored_rows": true,
    "new_correlations_or_p_values": false
  },
  "phase34": {
    "arm": "FROZEN_X_LOCAL_PRICE_LABEL_PURGED",
    "training_completed_at": "2026-10-17T13:21:55+09:00",
    "statistics": {
      "models": 30,
      "positive_open_EV_models": 30,
      "mean_model_open_EV": 0.007944179013965538,
      "median_model_open_EV": 0.008809389362365406,
      "mean_model_close_EV": 0.009213658775246629,
      "median_test_auc": 0.9318057374832753,
      "selected_trades": 34200,
      "nonexecutable": 5
    },
    "splits": [
      {
        "split": "train",
        "source_rows": 1425172,
        "kept_rows": 1422692,
        "purged_or_missing": 2480,
        "label_changes_on_retained": 3181,
        "start": "20120103",
        "end": "20231221"
      },
      {
        "split": "valid",
        "source_rows": 125379,
        "kept_rows": 122889,
        "purged_or_missing": 2490,
        "label_changes_on_retained": 605,
        "start": "20240102",
        "end": "20241223"
      },
      {
        "split": "test",
        "source_rows": 189767,
        "kept_rows": 189766,
        "purged_or_missing": 1,
        "label_changes_on_retained": 829,
        "start": "20250102",
        "end": "20260710"
      }
    ],
    "validation_selected_model": {
      "index": 6,
      "model_id": "34-3-US_base_plus_kr_market_mlp__mlp",
      "model_type": "mlp",
      "feature_count": 342,
      "selected_epoch": 9,
      "validation_selection_score": 0.012892125790123195,
      "selected": 1140,
      "executable": 1140,
      "test_days": 380,
      "signal_start": "20250102",
      "signal_end": "20260710",
      "entry_start": "20250103",
      "exit_end": "20260717",
      "close_net_ev": 0.006467696476498219,
      "open_net_ev": 0.004782062059146604,
      "overnight_mean": 0.0016667111187417608,
      "close_open_difference": 0.0016856344173516143,
      "overnight_open_covariance": 5.95284924913472e-06,
      "test_positive_rate": 0.043854009360075,
      "test_metrics": {
        "accuracy": 0.8901014934182098,
        "precision": 0.24506732842439283,
        "recall": 0.7238644556596971,
        "f1": 0.36616721879463876,
        "roc_auc": 0.9318767225064057
      },
      "return_identity_max_abs_error": 3.0747973611688906e-16
    },
    "selected_model_uncertainty": {
      "method": "date-clustered circular block bootstrap, trade-weighted ratio estimand",
      "block_sessions": 5,
      "replicates": 10000,
      "seed": 20261018,
      "percentile_95_intervals": {
        "close_net_ev": [
          -0.003207677099223471,
          0.01590651673901702
        ],
        "open_net_ev": [
          -0.004215312893209802,
          0.013454967744795926
        ],
        "close_open_difference": [
          -0.00030907513597203476,
          0.0036110663459277565
        ],
        "overnight_mean": [
          -0.0002696461023654241,
          0.0035409572246882463
        ],
        "overnight_open_covariance": [
          -0.0001590898092114451,
          0.00016492804214067344
        ]
      },
      "p_values_calculated": false
    },
    "limitations": [
      "Frozen historical features and eligibility were not repaired or certified point-in-time.",
      "Local provider prices and corporate actions were not independently certified as a single vintage.",
      "Original-label models were not retrained on identical purged rows: no pure causal label-effect comparison.",
      "Trade EV is not portfolio NAV, annualized return, or benchmark alpha.",
      "Models are dependent; positive counts are descriptive, not independent significance tests.",
      "Runtime equality to historical runs is not certified.",
      "This arm does not replace the original 114-model census or the US57 Table8 exclusion cohort."
    ]
  },
  "public_content": "Aggregate metrics and audit outcomes only. No raw prices, item predictions, private checkpoints, feature matrices or execution/generation scripts.",
  "private_results_sha256": "379a6c27b2f5f7b95e269a9aa142a6ef8658ba021bf9c173ef3a5f411618af6e"
}